Receipts, not hype
Track Record
Every pick we publish lands here and stays here: buy price, grader, grade received, sale or current value, fees and realized ROI. Losing picks are not removed.
0 closed picks so far. The first 8 picks went out in Steal Sheet #1 on Oct 16, 2026 and are all open. Hit rate and average ROI stay blank until a pick is graded and sold. "Exp. net ROI" is the projection at publication, not a result.
Total picks
8
Open
8
published, not yet sold
Hit rate (ROI > 0)
—
of 0 closed (sold)
Average realized ROI
—
closed picks only
| Date | Card | Entry (raw avg) | Target (graded) | PSA fee | Exp. net ROI | Max buy | Verdict | Grade | Sale | Realized ROI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 2023 Panini Prizm Victor Wembanyama Silver #136 RC | $1,058.01 | $2,292.54 | $199.00 | +57.0% | $1,448.31 | GRADE | — | — | — | open |
| 2026-10-16 | 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Josh Allen #2 | $716.38 | $1,312.00 | $79.99 | +41.0% | $858.47 | GRADE | — | — | — | open |
| 2026-10-16 | 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Stephen Curry #3 | $2,644.96 | $4,841.61 | $349.00 | +36.4% | $3,062.96 | GRADE | — | — | — | open |
| 2026-10-16 | 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Luka Doncic #1 | $1,297.25 | $2,408.46 | $199.00 | +38.8% | $1,533.73 | GRADE | — | — | — | open |
| 2026-10-16 | 2025 Panini Donruss Downtown Patrick Mahomes II #8 | $804.71 | $1,401.68 | $79.99 | +37.8% | $928.04 | GRADE | — | — | — | open |
| 2026-10-16 | 2025 Panini Donruss Downtown Lamar Jackson #1 | $340.00 | $626.62 | $59.99 | +27.4% | $371.87 | GRADE | — | — | — | open |
| 2026-10-16 | 2025 Panini Donruss Downtown Ashton Jeanty #11 RC | $350.00 | $637.68 | $59.99 | +29.4% | $382.79 | GRADE | — | — | — | open |
| 2026-10-16 | 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Giannis Antetokounmpo #8 | $858.69 | $1,525.64 | $199.00 | +18.7% | $893.91 | PASS | — | — | — | open |
Entry and target are as published. Exp. net ROI, max buy and verdict use the latest comps (updated 2026-10-17). Max buy is the highest raw price, including shipping, that still clears our 20% expected net ROI bar. Don't pay more.
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Get the Steal Sheet free →How results are counted
- Entry = the raw average price when the pick was published (our cost basis). Target = expected graded value: gem rate × PSA 10 price + (1 − gem rate) × PSA 9 price, before fees.
- Expected net ROI uses the calculator math: expected value after a 13.25% marketplace fee, minus entry, PSA fee (tier set by expected graded value) and $10 shipping/insurance, divided by that all-in cost.
- Realized ROI = (sale − marketplace fees − entry − grading cost) ÷ (entry + grading cost). Only sold picks count as closed and go into the hit rate and average.
- Losing picks are never removed. The data lives in a single public file, so changes are visible in the site's history.