Issue #001

Steal Sheet #1: 8 raw card picks, 7 worth grading (Oct 16, 2026; updated Oct 17)

Updated Oct 17, 2026. We re-checked every pick against fresh sold comps and live eBay listings before sending. Changes:

Prices are refreshed to Oct 17.

Every pick now has a max buy price: the most you can pay, including shipping, and still clear our 20% net ROI bar.

Giannis is now a PASS at today’s price. Buy only at $893.91 or less.

Curry’s PSA 9 now uses its last real PSA 9 sale instead of an average inflated by a BGS 9.

The live Josh Allen and Mahomes listings sit above recent raw sales, so buy at or under the cap.

Welcome to the first real Steal Sheet. Eight raw cards made the cut this week, and 7 still clear our bar at today’s prices. Every one passed our scout’s screen: a PSA gem rate of 45% or higher, a PSA pop of at least 50, and a raw price plus base grading fee within 10% of the PSA 9 price, so a 9 limits the damage. We then re-ran each card through our own calculator with selling fees, shipping and the PSA fee tier its value actually requires.

All eight stay on the Track Record as open picks, including the one we now rate PASS. Nothing has been graded or sold yet, so there are 0 closed picks so far. The ROI numbers below are projections, not results.

The picks, ranked by expected net ROI

#	Card	Cost basis	PSA 9 / PSA 10	Gem rate	PSA fee tier	Gross ROI	Net ROI	Max buy	Verdict	Confidence
1	2023 Panini Prizm Victor Wembanyama Silver #136 RC	$1,058.01	$1,062.86 / $3,087.50	60.7%	Express $199.00	82.4%	57.0%	$1,448.31	GRADE	High
2	2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Josh Allen #2	$717.31	$800.00 / $1,824.00	50.0%	Priority $79.99	64.6%	41.0%	$858.47	GRADE	Medium
3	2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Luka Doncic #1	$1,297.25	$1,399.00 / $2,978.50	64.1%	Express $199.00	61.1%	38.8%	$1,533.73	GRADE	Medium
4	2025 Panini Donruss Downtown Patrick Mahomes II #8	$796.75	$912.06 / $1,553.98	77.3%	Priority $79.99	60.6%	37.8%	$928.04	GRADE	High
5	2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Stephen Curry #3	$2,650.84	$3,150.00 / $5,100.00	81.2%	Super Express $349.00	57.8%	36.4%	$3,062.96	GRADE	Medium
6	2025 Panini Donruss Downtown Ashton Jeanty #11 RC	$350.00	$412.50 / $695.00	75.7%	Standard $59.99	52.8%	29.4%	$382.79	GRADE	Medium
7	2025 Panini Donruss Downtown Lamar Jackson #1	$346.30	$416.15 / $697.50	69.3%	Standard $59.99	50.4%	27.4%	$371.87	GRADE	High
8	2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Giannis Antetokounmpo #8	$906.07*	$937.81 / $1,703.36	76.8%	Express $199.00	38.1%	18.7%	$893.91	PASS	Low

How to read this. Gross ROI is expected graded value minus raw cost and PSA fee, over raw cost plus PSA fee, before selling costs. Net ROI is what our calculator gives: it also takes off a 13.25% marketplace fee on the sale and $10 for shipping and insurance. We call a card GRADE when net ROI clears 20%. Max buy is the highest raw price, including shipping, at which net ROI still reaches 20%. Pay more and the pick no longer works.

Cost basis is the raw average, except Giannis (*): it hasn’t sold raw since July, so we use the only live raw copy at $906.07 including shipping.

The math

For every card:

Gem rate = PSA 10 pop ÷ total graded (from the PSA pop report).
Expected graded value = gem rate × PSA 10 price + (1 − gem rate) × PSA 9 price. We assume a non-10 comes back a 9. An 8 or worse would hurt, which is why we only buy sharp copies.
PSA fee tier is set by expected graded value against PSA’s max insured value per tier (Oct 2026): Standard $59.99 up to $1,000, $79.99 up to $1,500, $199 up to $2,500, $349 up to $5,000, $599 up to $10,000.
All-in cost = cost basis + PSA fee + $10 shipping and insurance.
Net ROI = (expected graded value × (1 − 13.25%) − all-in cost) ÷ all-in cost.
Max buy = expected graded value × (1 − 13.25%) ÷ 1.20 − PSA fee − $10.

#	Card	Expected graded value	All-in cost	Expected net sale	Expected profit	Break-even PSA 10 odds	Max buy if billed at PSA 10
1	Prizm Victor Wembanyama Silver #136 RC	$2,292.54	$1,267.01	$1,988.85	$721.84	19.6%	$1,298.31
2	Donruss Optic Downtown Josh Allen #2	$1,312.00	$807.30	$1,138.16	$330.86	12.8%	$739.46
3	Donruss Optic Downtown Luka Doncic #1	$2,410.71	$1,506.25	$2,091.26	$585.01	21.4%	$1,383.73
4	Donruss Downtown Patrick Mahomes II #8	$1,408.24	$886.74	$1,221.67	$334.93	17.2%	$809.03
5	Donruss Optic Downtown Stephen Curry #3	$4,733.56	$3,009.84	$4,106.39	$1,096.55	16.4%	$2,812.96
6	Donruss Downtown Ashton Jeanty #11 RC	$626.33	$419.99	$543.34	$123.35	25.4%	same
7	Donruss Downtown Lamar Jackson #1	$611.23	$416.29	$530.25	$113.96	22.6%	same
8	Donruss Optic Downtown Giannis Antetokounmpo #8	$1,525.64	$1,115.07	$1,323.52	$208.45	45.4%	same

Fee tier upcharge risk. PSA bills by declared value, and a card that comes back a 10 can be worth more than the tier you paid for. If PSA bills at the PSA 10 value, here is where each card lands:

#1 Prizm Victor Wembanyama Silver #136 RC: PSA 10 at $3,087.50 is over the $2,500.00 cap. At the $349.00 tier, net ROI is 40.4% (GRADE).
#2 Donruss Optic Downtown Josh Allen #2: PSA 10 at $1,824.00 is over the $1,500.00 cap. At the $199.00 tier, net ROI is 22.9% (GRADE).
#3 Donruss Optic Downtown Luka Doncic #1: PSA 10 at $2,978.50 is over the $2,500.00 cap. At the $349.00 tier, net ROI is 26.3% (GRADE).
#4 Donruss Downtown Patrick Mahomes II #8: PSA 10 at $1,553.98 is over the $1,500.00 cap. At the $199.00 tier, net ROI is 21.5% (GRADE).
#5 Donruss Optic Downtown Stephen Curry #3: PSA 10 at $5,100.00 is over the $5,000.00 cap. At the $599.00 tier, net ROI is 26.0% (GRADE).
#6 Donruss Downtown Ashton Jeanty #11 RC: a PSA 10 at $695.00 stays inside the $1,000.00 cap of the Standard tier, so there’s no upcharge risk.
#7 Donruss Downtown Lamar Jackson #1: a PSA 10 at $697.50 stays inside the $1,000.00 cap of the Standard tier, so there’s no upcharge risk.
#8 Donruss Optic Downtown Giannis Antetokounmpo #8: a PSA 10 at $1,703.36 stays inside the $2,500.00 cap of the Express tier, so there’s no upcharge risk.

Pick by pick

1. 2023 Panini Prizm Victor Wembanyama Silver #136 RC

The deepest pop on the sheet and the widest 10-to-9 spread: a 10 is worth about 3× a 9.

Max buy: $1,448.31 ($1,298.31 if PSA bills at the PSA 10 tier). Recent raw sales: $959 (Oct 11), $915–$1,180 in September.
Comps: raw avg $1,058.01 · PSA 9 $1,062.86 · PSA 10 $3,087.50. Recent PSA 10 sales: $2,935–$3,057 (Oct 11–14). Recent PSA 9 sales: $1,025–$1,125 (Aug).
Pop: 5,284 PSA 10s of 8,700 graded (60.7% gem rate)
Math: expected graded value $2,292.54 → Express tier at $199.00 → all-in $1,267.01 → net ROI 57.0% (gross 82.4%; the scout’s own gross estimate was about +102%) → GRADE
Where to look: No live raw listing link as of Oct 17. Recent raw sales ran $915–$1,180.
Confidence: High. Huge pop, and the PSA 10 is worth about 3× the PSA 9. The 61% gem rate was also noted publicly on X.

2. 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Josh Allen #2

The biggest PSA 10 multiple of the football picks (about 2.3× the PSA 9), but it’s a coin flip on the 10.

Max buy: $858.47 ($739.46 if PSA bills at the PSA 10 tier). The live Buy It Now ($856.07 incl. shipping) sits above recent raw sales ($680–$800, Sep 19 – Oct 5). The seller takes offers, so offer closer to recent sales and never above the max buy price.
Comps: raw avg $717.31 · PSA 9 $800.00 · PSA 10 $1,824.00. Last PSA 9 sales: $799.99 (Sep 8), $775 (Aug 25). Last PSA 10 sales: $2,250 (Oct 3), $1,824 (Sep 22), $1,650 (Sep 8).
Pop: 222 PSA 10s of 444 graded (50.0% gem rate)
Math: expected graded value $1,312.00 → Priority tier at $79.99 → all-in $807.30 → net ROI 41.0% (gross 64.6%; the scout’s own gross estimate was about +69%) → GRADE
Where to look: eBay Buy It Now at $856.07 (live Oct 17, Buy It Now incl. shipping, seller accepts offers, eBay Authenticity Guarantee). That’s under the $858.47 cap, but above the raw average, so it gives up some ROI. It’s also above the $739.46 cap that applies if PSA bills at the PSA 10 tier.
Confidence: Medium. The gem rate (50%) only just clears the 45% bar.

3. 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Luka Doncic #1

A PSA 10 at more than 2× the PSA 9 with a 64% gem rate, but raw copies are hard to find.

Max buy: $1,533.73 ($1,383.73 if PSA bills at the PSA 10 tier). Raw supply is thin: one raw sale in the last 30 days ($1,100 on Oct 6).
Comps: raw avg $1,297.25 · PSA 9 $1,399.00 · PSA 10 $2,978.50. Recent PSA 9 sales: $1,350 (Sep 16), $1,375–$1,400 (Jul 30). Recent PSA 10 sales: $3,000 (Oct 5), $2,830 (Aug 31).
Pop: 98 PSA 10s of 153 graded (64.1% gem rate)
Math: expected graded value $2,410.71 → Express tier at $199.00 → all-in $1,506.25 → net ROI 38.8% (gross 61.1%; the scout’s own gross estimate was about +77%) → GRADE
Where to look: No live raw listing link as of Oct 17; raw supply is scarce.
Confidence: Medium. Raw supply is scarce (one raw sale in 30 days).

4. 2025 Panini Donruss Downtown Patrick Mahomes II #8

A 77% gem rate on a deep pop, with a PSA 9 that sits above the raw average, keeps the downside small.

Max buy: $928.04 ($809.03 if PSA bills at the PSA 10 tier). The live Buy It Now ($855.07 incl. shipping) sits above recent raw sales ($600–$899.99 in October, most at $800–$875). The seller takes offers, so offer closer to recent sales and never above the max buy price.
Comps: raw avg $796.75 · PSA 9 $912.06 · PSA 10 $1,553.98. Recent PSA 9 sales: $950 (Oct 15), $1,000 (Sep 27), $913.63 (Sep 14). Recent PSA 10 sales: $1,550–$1,650 (Oct 5–13).
Pop: 1,052 PSA 10s of 1,361 graded (77.3% gem rate)
Math: expected graded value $1,408.24 → Priority tier at $79.99 → all-in $886.74 → net ROI 37.8% (gross 60.6%; the scout’s own gross estimate was about +62%) → GRADE
Where to look: eBay Buy It Now at $855.07 (live Oct 17, Buy It Now incl. shipping, seller accepts offers, eBay Authenticity Guarantee). That’s under the $928.04 cap, but above the raw average, so it gives up some ROI. It’s also above the $809.03 cap that applies if PSA bills at the PSA 10 tier.
Confidence: High. Deep pop, high gem rate, and the PSA 9 alone covers the raw cost.

5. 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Stephen Curry #3

An 81% gem rate and a PSA 9 well above the raw average, if you can find a raw copy at all.

Max buy: $3,062.96 ($2,812.96 if PSA bills at the PSA 10 tier). Raw supply is scarce: one raw sale in the last 30 days ($2,498 on Oct 11).
Comps: raw avg $2,650.84 · PSA 9 $3,150.00 · PSA 10 $5,100.00. PSA 9 uses the last real PSA 9 sale ($3,150, Feb 25, 2026), not SportsCardsPro’s Grade 9 average ($3,725), which a BGS 9 sale at $4,500 pulled up. PSA 10 sales: $5,599.99 (Oct 5), $5,499.99 (Oct 2), $4,938 (Sep 22).
Pop: 121 PSA 10s of 149 graded (81.2% gem rate)
Math: expected graded value $4,733.56 → Super Express tier at $349.00 → all-in $3,009.84 → net ROI 36.4% (gross 57.8%; the scout’s own gross estimate was about +79%) → GRADE
Where to look: No live raw listing link as of Oct 17; raw supply is scarce.
Confidence: Medium. Raw supply is scarce (one raw sale in 30 days), and PSA 9 comps are thin.

6. 2025 Panini Donruss Downtown Ashton Jeanty #11 RC

A 76% gem rate on a rookie Downtown, but rookie pricing can move fast with on-field results.

Max buy: $382.79. Deep raw market: most October raw sales landed at $315–$360. The live Buy It Now ($380.72 incl. shipping) is just under the max buy price, so there’s little room. The seller takes offers, so offer lower.
Comps: raw avg $350.00 · PSA 9 $412.50 · PSA 10 $695.00. The latest PSA 10 sales are softer ($590 and $605 on Oct 14). Recent PSA 9 sales: $425 (Oct 7), $435 (Sep 8).
Pop: 274 PSA 10s of 362 graded (75.7% gem rate)
Math: expected graded value $626.33 → Standard tier at $59.99 → all-in $419.99 → net ROI 29.4% (gross 52.8%; the scout’s own gross estimate was about +56%) → GRADE
Where to look: eBay Buy It Now at $380.72 (live Oct 17, Buy It Now incl. shipping, seller accepts offers, eBay Authenticity Guarantee). That’s under the $382.79 cap, but above the raw average, so it gives up some ROI.
Confidence: Medium. Rookie prices swing with his season; timing may be better in Nov/Dec.

7. 2025 Panini Donruss Downtown Lamar Jackson #1

The cheapest entry on the sheet: the PSA 9 sits above the raw average and a 10 roughly doubles the raw price.

Max buy: $371.87. Deep raw market: most October raw sales landed at $330–$375. The live Buy It Now ($365.58 incl. shipping) is under the max buy price.
Comps: raw avg $346.30 · PSA 9 $416.15 · PSA 10 $697.50. The PSA 10 slipped from $720.21 to $697.50 since Oct 14, so the ROI came down. Recent PSA 9 sales: $415–$425 (Oct 6–14).
Pop: 450 PSA 10s of 649 graded (69.3% gem rate)
Math: expected graded value $611.23 → Standard tier at $59.99 → all-in $416.29 → net ROI 27.4% (gross 50.4%; the scout’s own gross estimate was about +57%) → GRADE
Where to look: eBay Buy It Now at $365.58 (live Oct 17, Buy It Now incl. shipping, seller accepts offers, eBay Authenticity Guarantee). That’s under the $371.87 cap, but above the raw average, so it gives up some ROI.
Confidence: High. The PSA 9 alone roughly breaks even, and the pop is deep.

8. 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Giannis Antetokounmpo #8

A 77% gem rate on a thin pop, but at today’s only raw ask the math no longer clears our bar. PASS unless you can buy at or under the cap.

Max buy: $893.91. PASS at today’s price ($906.07 incl. shipping, down from $931.07 on Oct 14). The seller takes offers: buy only at or under the max buy price.
Comps: raw avg $858.69 (stale; cost basis is $906.07) · PSA 9 $937.81 · PSA 10 $1,703.36. No Grade 9 sales on record, so the PSA 9 value is SportsCardsPro’s estimate (unverified). The verdict barely depends on it. Recent PSA 10 sales: $1,750 and $1,799 (Oct 7).
Pop: 86 PSA 10s of 112 graded (76.8% gem rate)
Math: expected graded value $1,525.64 → Express tier at $199.00 → all-in $1,115.07 → net ROI 18.7% (gross 38.1%; the scout’s own gross estimate was about +66%) → PASS
Where to look: eBay Buy It Now at $906.07 (live Oct 17, Buy It Now incl. shipping, seller accepts offers, eBay Authenticity Guarantee). That’s above the $893.91 cap, so offer at or under the cap or pass.
Confidence: Low. Raw comps are stale (no raw sales since July) and the only current raw ask is above the price that clears our 20% bar.

Risks

Rookie volatility. Ashton Jeanty (#11 RC) and Wembanyama (#136 RC) are rookie cards. Prices can swing hard with on-field news and injuries. For Jeanty, the timing may be better in Nov/Dec.
Scarce raw supply. Curry and Luka each had just one raw sale in the last 30 days, and we have no live listing link for Curry, Luka or Wemby. Without supply you can’t buy at the average, and the first ask you find may be well above it. Never pay more than the max buy.
Listings above recent sales. The live Josh Allen ($856.07) and Mahomes ($855.07) Buy It Nows sit above recent raw sales. Both sellers take offers, so offer at or under the cap.
Condition risk. Pop gem rates cover every copy ever graded, including the best ones. A copy with soft corners or off centering will not hit those odds. Buy only NM-sharp copies. Check centering front and back, corners under magnification, edges, and surface under angled light, from real photos, not stock images.
Comps move. Prices are as of Oct 17 and can change before your card comes back from PSA. The five eBay listings were live on Oct 17. All take offers and go through eBay Authenticity Guarantee, but they can sell at any time.
Fees and turnaround. PSA fees and tiers are estimates as of Oct 2026 and can change. Higher tiers are faster, but they cost more. Selling fees depend on your marketplace and seller status.
Not every non-10 is a 9. Our math assumes the miss is a 9. An 8 sells for much less.

What we left out: Wemby and LeBron Downtowns look great on paper, but their current Buy It Now asks are 2–5× the last-sold average, so the comps aren’t reliable.

Sources

Raw, PSA 9 and PSA 10 prices are SportsCardsPro averages as of Oct 17, 2026, cross-checked against individual sold listings. The exception is Curry’s PSA 9, which is its last real PSA 9 sale ($3,150, Feb 25, 2026). PSA pop and gem rates come from the PSA pop column, as of Oct 14–16, 2026. Listing prices are live eBay Buy It Nows, including shipping, checked Oct 17. The Wembanyama 61% gem rate was also noted publicly on X. Run any card yourself in the Grading ROI Calculator, or open its card page for the full breakdown.

Not financial advice. Raw2ROI publishes research and math for educational purposes. Card prices are volatile, grades are never guaranteed, and you can lose money. Do your own research and only spend what you can afford to lose. See the full disclaimer.